郑板桥
‘Overcapacity’ claim groundless as China’s green tech fuels global growth: Tian Xuan_我的网站
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In economic theory, "overcapacity" - for which no universally accepted definition exists - is inherently a recurring feature of the market economy's dynamic "balance - imbalance - rebalance" cycle. The Western narrative that equates China's sizable production capacity directly with "overcapacity" defies economic logic and rigor; in reality, it represents a politicization of trade and economic issues.
First, it confuses the concepts of "capacity scale" and "overcapacity." China's overall industrial capacity utilization remains within a reasonable range. Periodically lower utilization in traditional sectors reflects a normal adjustment as these industries advance toward high-end, intelligent, and green production. Ample capacity in certain emerging industries is precisely what meets surging global demand for high-end, smart, and green solutions. Therefore, equating scale with excess is typical equivocation.
Second, "overcapacity" itself is a dynamic feature of market economies, where no fixed balance persists indefinitely. Judging capacity based solely on static snapshots violates basic economic principles.
Third, it is erroneous to simplistically link trade surpluses or industrial subsidies to overcapacity, while ignoring the macro context of global specialization and cross-border savings-investment structures. It also disregards the reality that reasonable capacity utilization ranges differ across economies at varying stages of development. Imposing a single standard on China is neither scientific nor rigorous.
China's global competitiveness in green technology stems from sustained, large-scale investment in innovation, a comprehensive industrial and supply chain system, massive application scenarios, and intense market competition - not from alleged government subsidies. After decades of long-cycle R&D, Chinese industries have achieved breakthroughs in core technologies such as power batteries and photovoltaic modules.
During the 14th Five-Year Plan period (2021-25), China's nationwide R&D spending grew at an average annual rate of 10 percent. Economies of scale have continuously diluted production costs. China's ultra-large domestic market and full-chain supporting ecosystem provide an optimal testing ground for new technologies - from pilot verification to mass deployment. With more than 200 million market entities driving fierce competition, enterprises are constantly compelled to cut costs, raise efficiency, and upgrade products, thereby forging dual advantages in price and performance that we see today.
There is no direct causation between subsidies and overcapacity. Industrial subsidies are a globally recognized practice, typically aimed at correcting market failures and advancing critical technologies. China's subsidies are granted on an impartial basis to all types of market entities, in full compliance with WTO rules, and have not triggered disorderly capacity expansion.
Currently, capacity utilization in China's green industries remains within a reasonable range. Support is primarily directed toward R&D, technological breakthroughs, and consumer-side incentives through market-based mechanisms - not toward fueling overcapacity. Crucially, China's high-quality capacity has reduced the global cost of green transition, representing an opportunity rather than a shock to world development.
Against the backdrop of global carbon neutrality goals, labeling China's new energy capacity as "overcapacity" is entirely untenable. According to the International Energy Agency, global data center electricity consumption will approach 1 trillion kWh by 2030, with 40 percent of incremental power needing to come from renewables. Demand for wind power, photovoltaics, power batteries, and related green energy solutions remains far from saturated - so claims of "overcapacity" are groundless.
China's capacity plays a central role in advancing the global energy transition. Over the past decade, the levelized cost of electricity from wind and solar globally has fallen by more than 60 percent and 80 percent respectively - improvements largely attributable to Chinese innovation and manufacturing, which have directly lowered the cost threshold for worldwide green transformation.
The US journal Science crowned the global renewable energy surge led by China among its Top 10 Breakthroughs of 2025. Leveraging its technological and scale advantages, China is well positioned to supply abundant, high-quality green energy equipment and solutions, meet fast-growing renewable demand from data centers, industrial production, and other sectors, and tangibly support countries in implementing the Paris Agreement. In short, China is a pivotal force driving the global low-carbon transition.
The so-called "China Shock 2.0" is fundamentally a protectionist narrative rooted in Cold War thinking - a politically motivated claim inconsistent with facts. The rapid development of China's modern industries is driven by innovation and sustained institutional reform, not by dumping allegedly excess capacity abroad. Rather than posing a shock, China's industrial progress offers a "China Opportunity 2.0." It delivers multiple dividends to global development - innovation dividends, market dividends, and growth dividends - while injecting stability and vitality into global industrial chains through an open and win-win approach.
China's high-quality green and high-tech exports have tangibly accelerated the global green transition and reduced production costs worldwide. Meanwhile, as the world's largest goods consumption market and the second-largest importer for 17 consecutive years, China provides enormous market opportunities for economies around the globe. Moreover, China's open-source collaboration and technology sharing in frontier fields such as artificial intelligence and the digital economy enable developing countries to bridge the digital divide at lower cost and share in the benefits of the technological revolution.
The facts demonstrate that China's emerging technologies and products represent a "China Opportunity 2.0" - driving global technological progress, accelerating the green transition, improving livelihoods across nations, and bolstering the industrialization of developing economies. This open and mutually beneficial cooperation stands as the true engine of global economic recovery and sustainable development.
This article is compiled based on an interview with Tian Xuan, dean at the Guanghua School of Management and Boya Distinguished Professor of Finance of Peking University. [email protected]
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B | 海口8月21日电 (记者 王晓斌)南繁育种基地供应全国70%以上的新品种，天然橡胶产量占全国半壁江山，冬季瓜菜直供北方市场……作为热带海岛省份，海南在全国农业版图上的角色向来特殊。而《海南省“十五五”加快农业农村现代化规划》(下称《规划》)的出台，为上述特殊使命设定一份量化清单。 21日在海南省新闻办召开的新闻发布会上，海南省农业农村厅厅长周俊将实现《规划》目标的路径拆解为“2+4+3”框架：做好南繁种业与橡胶保供两篇文章，从四个维度协同部署农业农村现代化，从三个角度激活发展动力。 做好“两篇文章” “2”，是指南繁种业和橡胶保供“两篇文章”。这是中央赋予海南的战略使命。 南繁种业方面，海南“十五五”将加快推进国家南繁硅谷规划重点项目建设，实施国家南繁科研育种基地(海南)改造提升项目，推动全球动植物种质资源引进中转基地高效发展，做大做强“种源+种业+种市”的南繁产业，全力打造种子科技创新策源地、南繁产业发展新高地，推动“向种图强”。
C | 橡胶保供方面，海南将实施天然橡胶“五个一”工程，建设管护好天然橡胶生产保护区，推进标准化胶园和特种胶园建设，积极推进垦地融合胶园林下经济发展，做强橡胶深加工产业，推动产学研体系化攻关，着力提升天然橡胶生产能力和质量效益，保障国家战略安全。 四个维度协同部署 “4”，是海南“十五五”从农业、农村、农民、乡村治理4个维度部署农业农村现代化。
D | 这是加快农业农村现代化的重点任务。 周俊指出，加快农业现代化，海南要重点完善产业体系、生产体系、经营体系“三大体系”，主抓“五稳、四向、三新”，统筹发展科技农业、绿色农业、设施农业、质量农业、品牌农业、开放农业“六个农业”；发挥农垦与供销系统引领作用，着力培育新型农业经营主体和社会化服务组织。 加快农村现代化方面，高质量推进宜居宜业和美乡村建设，累计整治提升1万个左右清洁乡村，建设1千个以上宜居宜业和美乡村；推动城乡要素双向流动，持续提升农村基础设施完备度、基本公共服务便利度和人居环境舒适度。 促进农民全面发展方面，重点是“守底线、促增收、扩消费、提素质”，统筹建立常态化防止返贫致贫机制；实施促进农民增收行动，持续缩小城乡之间的收入差距，多措并举扩大乡村消费，加强农村精神文明建设，全面提高农民综合素质。 推进乡村治理现代化方面，加强农村基层党组织建设；加强乡镇政权治理能力建设，提升行政执行、为民服务、应急管理和平安建设等综合能力；推进自治法治德治融合，健全村级议事协商机制。 三个角度激活发展动力 周俊强调，要从农业科技创新、高水平对外开放、深化农村改革三个角度，激活海南农业农村发展动力。
E | 一是打造农业科技创新高地。主动对接国家战略科技力量，全力保障崖州湾国家实验室高效运行；深入实施“科技入链”计划，加强农业关键核心技术攻关，以农业科技创新推动产业创新；扎实推进农业科技体制机制创新，加快农业教育科技人才一体化发展，打通农业科技成果进村入户“最后一公里”。 二是打造农业开放合作高地。加快建设热带农业科技交流平台，进一步深化农业对外合作；对接国际规则打造热带农产品贸易基地，扩大优势特色农产品出口；加大农业对外引资和投资力度，促进贸易和生产协调发展，推动农业领域对外开放走在全国前列。 三是进一步深化农村改革。
F | 稳慎推进农村土地制度改革，扎实开展第二轮土地承包到期再延长30年整省试点，确保绝大多数农户承包地保持稳定；深化农村集体“三资”管理，实施新型农村集体经济提质增效行动，持续壮大农村集体经济。深化农垦和供销合作社等领域改革，破除体制机制障碍。
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Published on:11:12:19