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‘Overcapacity’ claim groundless as China’s green tech fuels global growth: Tian Xuan_我的网站

龙的天空

一 | 　　北京8月13日电（记者韩鹏飞）8月13日，国务院新闻办公室举行“开局起步‘十五五’”系列主题新闻发布会，介绍全面推进美丽中国建设有关情况。　　会上，生态环境部副部长李高介绍，“十五五”时期是实现碳达峰的决胜期，也是落实2035年国家自主贡献的关键期，将聚焦“五个重点”，统筹推进应对气候变化和碳达峰碳中和工作。　　一是持续推动重点领域绿色低碳转型。

Tian Xuan Photo: Courtesy of Tian
In economic theory, "overcapacity" - for which no universally accepted definition exists - is inherently a recurring feature of the market economy's dynamic "balance - imbalance - rebalance" cycle. The Western narrative that equates China's sizable production capacity directly with "overcapacity" defies economic logic and rigor; in reality, it represents a politicization of trade and economic issues.
First, it confuses the concepts of "capacity scale" and "overcapacity." China's overall industrial capacity utilization remains within a reasonable range. Periodically lower utilization in traditional sectors reflects a normal adjustment as these industries advance toward high-end, intelligent, and green production. Ample capacity in certain emerging industries is precisely what meets surging global demand for high-end, smart, and green solutions. Therefore, equating scale with excess is typical equivocation.
Second, "overcapacity" itself is a dynamic feature of market economies, where no fixed balance persists indefinitely. Judging capacity based solely on static snapshots violates basic economic principles.
Third, it is erroneous to simplistically link trade surpluses or industrial subsidies to overcapacity, while ignoring the macro context of global specialization and cross-border savings-investment structures. It also disregards the reality that reasonable capacity utilization ranges differ across economies at varying stages of development. Imposing a single standard on China is neither scientific nor rigorous.
China's global competitiveness in green technology stems from sustained, large-scale investment in innovation, a comprehensive industrial and supply chain system, massive application scenarios, and intense market competition - not from alleged government subsidies. After decades of long-cycle R&D, Chinese industries have achieved breakthroughs in core technologies such as power batteries and photovoltaic modules.
During the 14th Five-Year Plan period (2021-25), China's nationwide R&D spending grew at an average annual rate of 10 percent. Economies of scale have continuously diluted production costs. China's ultra-large domestic market and full-chain supporting ecosystem provide an optimal testing ground for new technologies - from pilot verification to mass deployment. With more than 200 million market entities driving fierce competition, enterprises are constantly compelled to cut costs, raise efficiency, and upgrade products, thereby forging dual advantages in price and performance that we see today.
There is no direct causation between subsidies and overcapacity. Industrial subsidies are a globally recognized practice, typically aimed at correcting market failures and advancing critical technologies. China's subsidies are granted on an impartial basis to all types of market entities, in full compliance with WTO rules, and have not triggered disorderly capacity expansion.
Currently, capacity utilization in China's green industries remains within a reasonable range. Support is primarily directed toward R&D, technological breakthroughs, and consumer-side incentives through market-based mechanisms - not toward fueling overcapacity. Crucially, China's high-quality capacity has reduced the global cost of green transition, representing an opportunity rather than a shock to world development.
Against the backdrop of global carbon neutrality goals, labeling China's new energy capacity as "overcapacity" is entirely untenable. According to the International Energy Agency, global data center electricity consumption will approach 1 trillion kWh by 2030, with 40 percent of incremental power needing to come from renewables. Demand for wind power, photovoltaics, power batteries, and related green energy solutions remains far from saturated - so claims of "overcapacity" are groundless.
China's capacity plays a central role in advancing the global energy transition. Over the past decade, the levelized cost of electricity from wind and solar globally has fallen by more than 60 percent and 80 percent respectively - improvements largely attributable to Chinese innovation and manufacturing, which have directly lowered the cost threshold for worldwide green transformation.
The US journal Science crowned the global renewable energy surge led by China among its Top 10 Breakthroughs of 2025. Leveraging its technological and scale advantages, China is well positioned to supply abundant, high-quality green energy equipment and solutions, meet fast-growing renewable demand from data centers, industrial production, and other sectors, and tangibly support countries in implementing the Paris Agreement. In short, China is a pivotal force driving the global low-carbon transition.
The so-called "China Shock 2.0" is fundamentally a protectionist narrative rooted in Cold War thinking - a politically motivated claim inconsistent with facts. The rapid development of China's modern industries is driven by innovation and sustained institutional reform, not by dumping allegedly excess capacity abroad. Rather than posing a shock, China's industrial progress offers a "China Opportunity 2.0." It delivers multiple dividends to global development - innovation dividends, market dividends, and growth dividends - while injecting stability and vitality into global industrial chains through an open and win-win approach.
China's high-quality green and high-tech exports have tangibly accelerated the global green transition and reduced production costs worldwide. Meanwhile, as the world's largest goods consumption market and the second-largest importer for 17 consecutive years, China provides enormous market opportunities for economies around the globe. Moreover, China's open-source collaboration and technology sharing in frontier fields such as artificial intelligence and the digital economy enable developing countries to bridge the digital divide at lower cost and share in the benefits of the technological revolution.
The facts demonstrate that China's emerging technologies and products represent a "China Opportunity 2.0" - driving global technological progress, accelerating the green transition, improving livelihoods across nations, and bolstering the industrialization of developing economies. This open and mutually beneficial cooperation stands as the true engine of global economic recovery and sustainable development.
This article is compiled based on an interview with Tian Xuan, dean at the Guanghua School of Management and Boya Distinguished Professor of Finance of Peking University. [email protected]

。实施碳排放总量和强度双控，推动能源、工业、交通运输、城乡建设等重点领域绿色低碳发展，推进减污降碳协同增效，巩固提升生态系统碳汇能力，加强非二氧化碳温室气体管控，重点做好甲烷、工业氧化亚氮、含氟气体等排放控制。　　二是加快推进全国碳市场建设。

二 | 全国碳排放权交易市场将在发电、钢铁、水泥、铝冶炼四个行业基础上扩大到石化、化工等高排放行业，实现对全国约80%二氧化碳排放的有效管控。

三 | 全国自愿减排交易市场将为更多领域降碳增汇项目提供激励，通过更好发挥碳价对绿色低碳技术和产业发展的引导促进作用，让全社会真切感受到“排碳有成本、减碳有收益”。　　三是完善碳排放统计核算体系。在解决好碳排放“怎么算”和“算得出”的基础上实现“算得准”，进一步夯实碳排放统计核算基础。积极推动碳足迹数据和标准体系建设，健全碳标识认证和管理机制，丰富产品碳足迹应用场景，妥善应对涉碳贸易壁垒，推动涉碳标准规范国际衔接互认，助力形成绿色低碳供应链和生产生活方式。　　四是全面提升气候韧性。推进气候适应型社会建设，持续完善适应气候变化工作体系，强化政策协同，加强气候变化观测，开展影响和风险评估，建立行动成效评估反馈机制，提升全社会适应气候变化能力，最大程度降低气候变化特别是极端天气气候事件造成的不利影响。　　五是积极推动应对气候变化国际合作。将秉持人类命运共同体理念，将应对气候变化深度融入四大全球倡议落实，深化气候变化南南合作。