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台民调乱象丛生尽显政治算计_参选人_公司_我的网站

家政妇三田

A |

原标题：台民调乱象丛生尽显政治算计参考消息网9月13日报道香港《亚洲周刊》9月12日一期发表报道称，台湾岛内参选人在选举季各出奇招，其中民调被认为是重要武器之一，很多人将它加以“修正”，以挫对手锐气。

B | 在台湾，民调已经“变调”，不再是单纯探询民意，很多时候成为竞选文宣，最近就发生这样的案例。

C | 报道称，针对台北市长选举，近日有两家民调公司的民调结果落差很大，引发议论。最新TVBS民调显示，国民党参选人蒋万安目前民调第一，领先无党籍参选的台北市前副市长黄珊珊，民进党参选人陈时中居第三；但另一家《放言》民调则显示，陈时中目前拿下第一，其次为蒋万安、黄珊珊。

D | 两份民调最大差异在于蒋万安的支持度相差了近10个百分点，陈时中与黄珊珊的差异不大。 (ECNS) – The 19th China-ASEAN Education Cooperation Week (CAECW) concluded in Guiyang, Guizhou Province, on Saturday, marking a significant push toward regional integration through digital learning and vocational training. Nearly 450 educators, policymakers, and industry leaders gathered to advance cross-border collaboration under the theme "Empowering a Friendly Community through Smart Education." This year's sessions produced several landmark agreements, including a framework for mutual recognition of vocational qualifications and the launch of the Ethnic Medicine AI Foundation Model, the first large-scale AI platform dedicated to traditional medicine. From Summit to Year-Round Platform Coinciding with the fifth anniversary of the China-ASEAN Comprehensive Strategic Partnership, the six-day event signaled a strategic shift in regional ties. Once a periodic summit, the CAECW is evolving into a year-round platform, with 60 additional activities scheduled across China, Thailand, Cambodia, Malaysia, and Indonesia this year-six of which will be hosted independently by ASEAN institutions. Digital Transformation at the Forefront Digital education dominated the agenda. Organizers launched the China-ASEAN Smart Education Capacity Co-Cultivation Program to narrow the regional digital divide by enhancing digital literacy and governance. Scale: The existing Duocai Smart Academy platform already offers over 350 multilingual courses from 112 institutions to 129,000 users. Access: A new ASEAN zone on China's National Smart Education Platform now provides virtual labs and AI-powered teaching tools. Innovation: The newly unveiled China-ASEAN AI Joint Innovation Laboratory will focus on applying AI to preserve and research ethnic medical traditions, such as those of the Miao, Dong, and Bouyei peoples, specifically targeting ASEAN markets. Breaking Barriers in Vocational Training In a major breakthrough for labor mobility, the International Mutual Recognition Scheme for Vocational Education Learning Outcomes was officially released. Covering 34 fields-from cross-border e-commerce and smart manufacturing to healthcare-the scheme aims to dismantle institutional barriers to talent flow. Complementing this, the "Guijiang Workshop" brand has expanded into a regional skills hub operating in Thailand, Laos, and Indonesia, exporting Chinese vocational standards in high-demand sectors like new energy and smart construction. Youth and Innovation Take Center Stage Youth engagement reached new heights, with the World University Innovation and Entrepreneurship Challenge attracting 1,007 projects from 149 universities across 11 countries. Peking University's team won the top prize for its cryo-electron microscopy technology platform. Other highlights included esports tournaments at Guiyang's X-Sci-Fi Valley and the "Speaking ASEAN in Chinese" language program. Organizers announced plans to host over 5,000 international youths in Guizhou over the next year. Strategic Outlook Since its inception in 2008, the CAECW has hosted over 54,000 participants from nearly 90 countries. Beyond education, the week serves as a pillar of soft power diplomacy, supporting the New International Land-Sea Trade Corridor and providing landlocked Guizhou with a vital gateway to Southeast Asia. "Education is the bridge, wisdom is the engine, and youth are the future," an organizer noted, emphasizing that the 2026 conclave marks not an endpoint, but a starting point for deeper, smarter regional cooperation. To ensure accountability, a year-round tracking system with project ledgers and quarterly reviews will monitor all signed agreements. 。所以究竟要如何评判哪份民调较准确呢？TVBS是老字号的民调先驱，固定在选举期间发布民调，被认为信用可靠。《放言》则是由亲绿的资深媒体人周玉蔻创办，委托山水民调公司进行该次民调，山水亦是家老牌民调公司，但曾被指“有民进党的影子”。“基本上，民调已经变成文宣的一部分，”台北市长柯文哲说，“你想要看什么样的民调，都可以做给你看。”言下之意是大家不用太认真看待。台湾联合新闻网9月12日的报道也关注了岛内民调乱带风向的问题。

E | 报道说，台湾地区年底地方选举进入民调、网络声量作战阶段，但既有民调公司替特定参选人量身打造调查方式，也有通过网络让支持者灌票方便带风向，更有人月烧百万新台币（1元新台币约合0.22元人民币——本网注）请网军攻击对手。“选举资讯战”打得火热，选民却看得半信半疑。学者提醒，未符合统计学基本要件的民调都充满政治算计。民调业者透露，有些民调公司会推出类似“假民调”，甚至有“包你赢”民调，从问题设计到调查方法，故意有利于特定参选人。另外，新闻或门户网站推出的网络民调很流行，但也最具争议，因为容易出现支持者重复投票的灌票现象，许多民调结果会与民众想象差异极大，有带风向的特定目的。报道称，针对民调怪象丛生，台湾艺术大学广电系教授赖祥蔚说，民调常被当成选举工具，最早是在问卷题目或样本上动手脚，使用引导式题目或抽调样本以获得想要的结果，更夸张的是没实际做民调就报数据。

F | 台大政治学系教授王业立认为，网络投票参考就好，这种调查基本上未符合统计学基本要件，但因结果可能对于中间选民起带风向作用、让民调落后者被弃保（指某政党或参选人因担忧同类型的参选人瓜分选票，就会喊出“弃保”的口号，希望选民将选票集中在有机会胜出的参选人身上——本网注），算是种政治算计。报道说，坊间民调依调查题数与样本数要价约12万到50万，除一般民调公司，市场调查中心、学术机构和新闻网站也抢食民调大饼，出现许多怪象。台湾联合新闻网9月12日的另一篇文章也说，一场地方选举，全台花费超过百亿。选战本来就存在严重的“贫富差距”现象，如今还有参选人为了带风向、操作弃保，花钱通过民调公司做手脚，以引导式题目、拿掉不利样本等方式进行假民调，企图欺骗选民、赢得胜选，更令人难以接受。文章说，部分有钱的参选人光操弄民调还不够，竟还聘请网军，通过散布对手负面信息的手法来洗白自己声量。